灯塔说
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#美方酝酿打击伊朗能源设施，使馆发撤离预警
Iran is very concerned about saving face
Trump is much better in this regard
He has no idea what "face" means
Although everyone is very tough, everyone wants to end the fight quickly!
灯塔说
#特朗普称对伊失去信心，酝酿再打击
Received news immediately that Trump canceled the attack on Iran
But the order was placed in limit price mode, missing the entry opportunity above 84+
In the end, rationality prevailed, and both sides chose to retreat
In the current situation, there are only two choices: full escalation or stepping back to negotiate
The previous small skirmishes no longer have any effect
The market is not buying it either.
Now continue to observe the progress of subsequent negotiations!
If oil prices fall, the August market will be slightly less pessimistic.
$CL
#特朗普称对伊失去信心，酝酿再打击
Received news immediately that Trump canceled the attack on Iran
But the order was placed in limit price mode, missing the entry opportunity above 84+
In the end, rationality prevailed, and both sides chose to retreat
In the current situation, there are only two choices: full escalation or stepping back to negotiate
The previous small skirmishes no longer have any effect
The market is not buying it either.
Now continue to observe the progress of subsequent negotiations!
If oil prices fall, the August market will be slightly less pessimistic.
$CL
#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到
Today is the last day of July, the closing day of the monthly chart
I wanted to write something, but felt there wasn’t much to say
Simply summarizing each point I want to make:
1. July ended successfully, quite satisfied. From the 1st to last night, I basically caught every fundamental market move in advance, though regrettably didn’t fully capitalize on all. The copy trading test account also achieved over 200% returns, with drawdown controlled at 12%.
2. August won’t be easy, but if you get through August and transition through September, Q4’s market will be much better;
3. Fundamentals remain the main focus, with technicals as support. In July, I invested a lot of effort to understand deeper macro information and have reaped the rewards of that effort.
4. Bullish on gold and BTC; the main strategy going forward is to buy the dips. In August, I plan to use more dip-buying tools.
5. The US stock market is too deep and unfamiliar territory; I will look for extreme highs and lows to find speculative opportunities.
Each of the above points will be discussed in more detail irregularly during live streams in the Square and the Planet!
Gold just pierced 4120 to take profit
Currently only one live reminder short order at 64900
Perfect July closing!
$XAU
#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点
How to interpret today's Beijing time 20:30 GDP and PCE data?
First, look at the relationship of results:
PCE cooling, GDP weak: US Treasury yields fall, benefiting gold, BTC/ETH to squeeze upward.
PCE hot, GDP resilient: rate hike expectations and yields rise, likely to break below the range.
GDP weak but PCE hot: stagflation combo, most unfavorable for risk assets.
Tonight (Thursday 8:30) is an extremely rare data coincidence—Q2 GDP preliminary and June core PCE landing in the same window, right after yesterday's decision by the Fed to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%.
The core battle point of this data set is the "confirmation of stagflation snapshot." The biggest market expectation gap currently lies in economic growth: Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has been slashed from 4.3% in May to 1.5% now, far below Wall Street's consensus of 2.3%. On the other hand, after core PCE hit a three-year high of 3.4% in May, the market expects only a slight drop to around 3.3% tonight.
If tonight's release shows low GDP (e.g., below 2%) + sticky PCE (flat or above 3.3%), it means the Fed will be trapped—Waller cannot continue rate hikes before an economic cliff, but also cannot open rate cuts with core inflation at 3.3%.
What this guidance means for trading:
Gold:
The stagflation combo is an absolute bullish catalyst for gold. As long as GDP visibly stalls, the market will be certain the Fed must eventually compromise with the economy. Weak economy suppresses nominal rates, inflation remains high, real rates passively decline, giving gold strong upward momentum.
Crypto assets:
For liquidity assets, this is a dilemma. Low GDP will make the market bet on easing in the long term, but high PCE will immediately suppress near-term risk appetite. Tonight is more likely to first see a downward spike clearing long liquidity. Currently, BTC oscillates around 64,000; without a PCE far below expectations (e.g., dropping to around 3.1%) to fully open rate cut space, it is hard to form a one-sided upward trend, likely turning into a wide-range monkey market.
US stocks:
Bad news is no longer good news here. The market still expects over 20% growth in Q2 earnings for US stocks. If macro GDP is falsified first (close to 1.5%), with very high forward P/E locked by PCE on the denominator side and earnings facing downward revisions on the numerator side, US stocks will inevitably face a long squeeze.
Core:
Tonight, do not look at any single data point alone; the combination difference must be considered. If at data release GDP misses but PCE beats expectations, going long gold is the most logical move; under this scenario, Nasdaq and crypto longs need to immediately reduce exposure and defend.
$BTC $XAU $CL
Yesterday, the expectations for the Federal Reserve meeting decision were basically consistent
Maintaining unchanged + Walsh hawkish
Market rises first then falls
Today is bullish first
$BTC Bitcoin 63700
$XAU Gold 4060
Already long
[Personal trading record sharing only, does not constitute any investment advice]
灯塔说
#美联储即将公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced tonight.
The two options are either a rate hike or maintaining the current rate.
The market says this time is the hardest to predict because the July US-Iran conflict caused oil prices to rise, which might prompt the Fed to suddenly raise rates to curb inflation.
My take in one sentence: no rate hike! Rates will remain unchanged.
Maintaining the current rate as expected.
However, if the dot plot shows several votes for a rate hike, then expectations for a September hike will rise, which is a bearish signal. If everyone agrees to keep rates unchanged with no hike votes, that’s bullish, so go long.
At the same time, Waller’s 2:30 speech might sound hawkish because last month’s inflation just came down and the nonfarm payroll data was unexpectedly weak, but this month oil prices have disrupted that.
He strongly opposes high inflation, so he will talk tough to try to lower inflation.
But although Waller sounds very hawkish, in reality, he’s just talk.
He won’t raise rates; the more aggressively he talks, the lower the actual probability of a hike.
Originally, Trump recommended him to take office to cut rates to boost economic growth and sustain a long bull market in US stocks.
But currently, cutting rates would let uncontrollable inflation spiral and cause US debt to soar, which would instead crush the stock market and economy.
To secure his position and stance, Waller must say the toughest things to stabilize the situation.
As long as oil prices stabilize and inflation remains controlled, rate hikes will only stay as talk, and there might even be rate cuts again during a stable period.
Therefore, the current situation is as important as October-November 2022: don’t get scared out of your positions at the last minute.
The bearish signals ahead are just appearances, just fake falls; these kinds of verbal attacks often create excellent left-side buying opportunities.
[Purely personal opinion shared for reference only]
#美联储即将公布利率决议
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be announced tonight.
The two options are either a rate hike or maintaining the current rate.
The market says this time is the hardest to predict because the July US-Iran conflict caused oil prices to rise, which might prompt the Fed to suddenly raise rates to curb inflation.
My take in one sentence: no rate hike! Rates will remain unchanged.
Maintaining the current rate as expected.
However, if the dot plot shows several votes for a rate hike, then expectations for a September hike will rise, which is a bearish signal. If everyone agrees to keep rates unchanged with no hike votes, that’s bullish, so go long.
At the same time, Waller’s 2:30 speech might sound hawkish because last month’s inflation just came down and the nonfarm payroll data was unexpectedly weak, but this month oil prices have disrupted that.
He strongly opposes high inflation, so he will talk tough to try to lower inflation.
But although Waller sounds very hawkish, in reality, he’s just talk.
He won’t raise rates; the more aggressively he talks, the lower the actual probability of a hike.
Originally, Trump recommended him to take office to cut rates to boost economic growth and sustain a long bull market in US stocks.
But currently, cutting rates would let uncontrollable inflation spiral and cause US debt to soar, which would instead crush the stock market and economy.
To secure his position and stance, Waller must say the toughest things to stabilize the situation.
As long as oil prices stabilize and inflation remains controlled, rate hikes will only stay as talk, and there might even be rate cuts again during a stable period.
Therefore, the current situation is as important as October-November 2022: don’t get scared out of your positions at the last minute.
The bearish signals ahead are just appearances, just fake falls; these kinds of verbal attacks often create excellent left-side buying opportunities.
[Purely personal opinion shared for reference only]
