#30年期美债收益率创19年新高 The US June PCE fell by 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first negative reading since 2020. In theory, this should be positive news, and US Treasury yields should decline. However, the market reaction was quite the opposite, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.27% at one point, the highest since 2007. The reason is simple: the bond market trades not on the past but on the future. Domestic demand in the US remained strong in Q2, international oil prices surged about 20% in July, and for the first time, three Federal Reserve members supported a rate hike. The market is more worried about inflation picking up again in the coming months rather than dwelling on what happened with June's PCE. What deserves more attention is the fiscal side. The US federal debt is approaching $40 trillion, with annual interest on government debt close to $1.4 trillion. With the 30-year Treasury yield above 5%, it means a large amount of maturing government debt will need to be refinanced at higher rates, increasing fiscal pressure. So, the market's real concern is not the $40 trillion itself but $40 trillion facing long-term rates above 5%. The more debt, the more issuance; the more issuance, the higher the yields may be; the higher the yields, the greater the interest expenses, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. In the coming months, the most important focus is not inflation data but the 30-year Treasury yield. Whether it can fall back below 5% will likely determine the valuation direction of global risk assets in the next phase.

Trump has once again ordered a new round of attacks on Iran, aiming to force Tehran to surrender. Why would Iran, which is only playing small-scale skirmishes, surrender? Iran's greatest strength is precisely dragging the war into a long-term cost that the U.S. is unwilling to bear. Moreover, for Tehran, prolonging the conflict might actually be more advantageous. Trump has always dreamed of achieving a total victory through limited war, but that’s just wishful thinking; he lacks the resolve for an all-out war. War continues → oil prices remain high → inflation fluctuates → the Federal Reserve maintains high interest rates → global liquidity remains tight → risk asset valuations are pressured. A prolonged stalemate in the war is a continuous drain on the global financial markets. Just endure it slowly!

The current volatility in the US stock market is even more thrilling than in the crypto space. In just two days, SanDisk surged 42.4%, and SK Hynix jumped 40.7%. Market sentiment switches faster than flipping a page. I have two viewpoints: 1️⃣ I've been saying all along: this AI revolution is not a bubble, but a redistribution of wealth. The US stock market has risen too much in recent years, especially in the AI industry chain, where many companies have increased several times or even more than tenfold. When valuations run ahead of earnings, a correction is inevitable. I prefer to understand this round of decline as a clearing of profit-taking, deleveraging, and repricing, rather than a change in the industry logic. Recent earnings reports also confirm this: Microsoft continues to increase AI revenue, SK Hynix continues to expand capital expenditures, and long-term HBM orders are increasing, indicating that AI infrastructure construction has not stopped. Looking at a longer timeframe of five or even ten years, every significant correction triggered by sentiment is often an opportunity to reposition quality assets. The premise is to control position size, not to go all-in at once. 2️⃣ I believe the past two days represent a rebound, not a reversal. The storage sector added hundreds of billions of dollars in market value in two days, mostly a valuation recovery after prior overselling. Whether this market can truly resume a bull run depends on two conditions. First: when the Federal Reserve truly enters a rate-cutting cycle. Second: whether AI investments can continuously translate into profits, not just capital expenditures. Currently, macro variables like high interest rates, oil prices, and geopolitical conflicts have not improved, and the liquidity environment does not support a one-way rally in US stocks. Therefore, I lean toward this being a recovery, not a new major uptrend. The hardest part of investing is not picking the right direction, but maintaining your own rhythm during extreme sentiment.

Missiles fired, crude oil surges! Iran launches ballistic missiles at a US military base in Jordan Houthi forces attack a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea The US military conducts precise strikes on Iran-backed militias in Iraq The Middle East situation escalates again The market's most direct reaction is crude oil continuing to strengthen In the short term, rising oil prices will push inflation expectations back up It will also suppress expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut This is not good news for growth stocks, especially the AI sector But what will determine the AI market are the upcoming earnings reports from several tech giants Looking at SK Hynix's earnings report Key data: Revenue of 79.3 trillion KRW, up 257% year-on-year, a record high Operating profit of 60.5 trillion KRW, up 557% year-on-year, a record high Net profit of 93.9 trillion KRW, up more than 13 times year-on-year, with about 33 trillion KRW difference between operating profit and net profit mainly from Kioxia investment gains. More noteworthy is the signal from management AI demand remains unchanged, AI infrastructure construction continues Long-term orders keep increasing Capital expenditures continue to expand Overall, I think this earnings report is quite good So why is SK Hynix's stock still falling? The market is no longer trading on performance but on expectations SK Hynix has risen more than tenfold in recent years Institutions have accumulated huge unrealized gains When the stock price has already priced in growth for the next few years Even record-breaking earnings may not continue to push valuations higher The recent pullback looks more like profit-taking and valuation digestion rather than a deterioration of fundamentals Tomorrow after the US market close, Microsoft, Meta, and Qualcomm will release earnings What truly affects the next phase of the AI sector is not whose profits are higher but whether these tech giants are still willing to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in building AI infrastructure If capital expenditures continue to increase it means AI demand remains strong If they start to contract the market will need to reassess this round of AI rally! #停火48小时告吹，美伊边打边谈 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动

I bought Corning at 220 and it dropped to 120. I've experienced altcoin halving before, but this is my first time experiencing a quality US stock halving. Fortunately, I only made a small initial position. My intuition was right—I haven't added to my position. When it drops to 110, the halving point, I will definitely buy another $500,000 in spot. The 110 level has already broken below the $100 billion market cap. Assuming 110 is the halving point, I'll add another $500,000. Opportunities come from the drop. Managing position size is really important! I'm grateful that after enduring the halving in Q1 spot this year, controlling position size has been ingrained in me. $GLW

#长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量 The IPO of Changxin Technology officially brings China's DRAM into the global capital market pricing system. On the same day, the Korean KOSPI triggered a circuit breaker during trading, with memory stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics plummeting, and US stocks such as Corning, SanDisk, and Micron in the AI industry chain also weakening simultaneously. Many attribute the cause to Changxin's IPO, but it's not that simple; the listing of Changxin Technology is just the fuse. Currently, Changxin mainly focuses on DRAM and has not yet achieved large-scale mass production capability for HBM in the short term. HBM, as the highest-profit and highest-technical-barrier high-end DRAM in the AI era, is still led globally by SK Hynix. SK Hynix's true core competitiveness has not changed in the short term. The main reason is that the memory sector's gains over the past year have been too large and valuations too high, so any slight disturbance leads to concentrated profit-taking. Additionally, the market is reassessing the future global DRAM competitive landscape, domestic semiconductor breakthroughs continue, and with the Federal Reserve maintaining high interest rates for a long time and expectations of rate hikes still existing in September, liquidity remains tight, all of which amplify this round of selling pressure. AI is humanity's greatest revolution; opportunities emerge from downturns. Build positions in batches, prepare for a five- to ten-year investment cycle, and seize the wealth redistribution brought by the AI revolution.

Changxin Technology (688825) reached an intraday high of ¥55.03 on its first day of listing, with a total market value once reaching about ¥3.65 trillion. Note! This is in RMB, not USD, which converts to approximately $540 billion. Some people casually say it's over $3 trillion—are they in the wrong scene? Changxin Technology is a Chinese company listed on the A-share market, so the unit is naturally RMB. If it were really worth over $3 trillion, it wouldn't just be the A-share market cap leader, but the world's number one by a huge margin. Don't stay in the US stock market too long and forget to switch back the currency unit. $CXMT

A new week has begun, and it's going to be lively! The US and Iran have mutually restrained and paused hostilities, reigniting hopes for negotiations. Brent crude oil has consequently fallen below 90, allowing risk markets to catch a breather at least for this week. Today, Hefei Changxin Technology was listed on the A-share market. Changxin Technology is a leading domestic DRAM manufacturer and one of the largest IPOs in the history of the STAR Market, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan, corresponding to a listing valuation of about 580 billion yuan. On Wednesday, SK Hynix will release its Q2 earnings report. I believe the importance of this report is even comparable to Nvidia's; it is one of the most important indicators for this round of AI market trends. On Thursday, the US PCE data will be released. If the core PCE monthly rate exceeds expectations, the market may further bet on high interest rates lasting longer, causing US Treasury yields and the dollar to strengthen, while tech stocks, BTC, and gold may come under pressure. If the core PCE monthly rate is below expectations, the market will reprice improved liquidity, which is positive for AI tech stocks and crypto assets. The PCE data tells the market how inflation is doing, while the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision announced the same day tells you what the Fed plans to do. Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and ARM will all release their Q2 2026 earnings reports after the US market closes on July 29. Together with SK Hynix, they will jointly determine the direction of global AI tech stocks and risk assets for the next quarter. After this week, more data will forecast the likely trends of risk markets in Q3 and Q4. AI is the future, not a bubble—at least, no bubble has formed yet!

The early period of the Han Dynasty experienced the turmoil at the end of the Qin Dynasty and the Chu-Han contention. The national treasury was empty, the people were impoverished, the feudal lords were powerful, and the northern Xiongnu kept invading southward. Facing internal and external troubles, Emperor Wen of Han did not choose to confront head-on but continued to pursue marriage alliances and rest to recuperate. He spent decades developing the economy, stabilizing the interior, and accumulating national strength. It was not until Emperor Jing of Han took over the relay that the Han Dynasty truly became strong. When Emperor Wu of Han ascended the throne, he had the confidence to launch a comprehensive counterattack against the Xiongnu, ultimately completely reversing the offensive and defensive situation. The biggest challenge for the United States now may not be Iran, but high debt, high deficits, inflationary pressures, and domestic political division. At this time, if the war is fully escalated for short-term political gains, it is very likely to further overdraw the finances and economy. Trump should endure for now, first stabilize the domestic economy, promote the return of manufacturing, control the fiscal deficit, win the midterm elections, and lay a solid domestic foundation. After the U.S. economy and political environment become more stable, then concentrate efforts to resolve the Iran issue. True great power competition is not about who throws the first punch, but who has a stronger foundation and more lasting strength. Temporary strategic restraint is not weakness, but waiting for an opportunity to strike with a higher chance of success and lower cost.