Microsoft $MSFT earnings report is basically a perfect score! After-hours surge of 8.8% • Revenue $90 billion vs. expected $87.6 billion • Earnings per share $4.74 vs. expected $4.22 • Azure revenue surpasses $100 billion, growth of 43% vs. expected 40% • Operating income $40.6 billion vs. expected $39.1 billion • Commercial RPO: $678 billion (YoY +84%) • Strong cash flow performance, reaching $55.44 billion (YoY +30%) • Cloud commercial remaining performance obligations $678 billion (YoY +84%) • Overall capital expenditure this quarter reached $41 billion (YoY +70%) Indicates the cloud business has a great future, continue to be optimistic about $NBIS ! #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊今夜交卷

Today I saw the big shot VIDA sell $7 million worth of Micron $MU PUT options at a price of $660! I followed suit and opened a $100,000 position on OKX buying $MU at $680, expiring in 11 days. If Micron's stock price doesn't fall below $680 at expiration, I will earn an annualized return of 20%, roughly $650 in premium. If at expiration the stock price falls below $680, I accept it and will buy Micron spot at $680, which is still quite attractive! Two birds with one stone, the odds are pretty good! 🧐

JPMorgan's latest research report, summary conclusion: The deleveraging process in the South Korean stock market is basically complete ✅! Leverage ETF liquidation 100% complete: the scale plummeted from $50 billion at the end of June to $17 billion, with capital inflows completely halted. Hedge fund deleveraging about 90% complete: JPMorgan's prime brokerage long-short ratio dropped sharply from 5.7 to 3.2, close to the normal range. Retail margin financing risk has been alleviated, with margin balances showing no abnormal surge and currently gently falling to $20 billion; retail investors hold sufficient cash, overseas assets, and profit buffers, so another chaotic forced liquidation or a circuit breaker scenario is unlikely. The pace of foreign capital outflow has significantly slowed. Previously, over $110 billion of foreign capital flowed out, with 90% concentrated in two leading memory chip companies (Samsung and SK Hynix); the MSCI Emerging Markets Index weights of these two companies were sharply reduced (from 9.5% to 6.5% and 8.3% to 4.5%, respectively), greatly easing the selling pressure caused by passive index rebalancing. Final conclusion: the main selling force that triggered large market fluctuations earlier no longer has sellable chips, the extreme mechanical liquidation phase is completely over, and a temporary bottom is arriving! By the way, JPMorgan issued a research report warning about South Korea's high leverage pressure and potential risks as early as early July. So, their view is quite accurate! Time to bottom-fish SK Hynix, brothers 🫡 #海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动

To be honest, I was really stunned when I understood this data. Previously, Nvidia (NVDA) spent a whopping 4 billion USD to lay out optical components: They invested 2 billion in Lumentum ($LITE), with a purchase price of 695.31 USD per share at the time; They also invested 2 billion in Coherent ($COHR), with a purchase price of 256.80 USD per share. At that time, Huang Renxun (Jensen Huang) made this investment very publicly, and everyone was watching the big boss's vision. So, guess what the market looks like now? $LITE is currently priced around 626 USD, which is about 10% lower than Huang's original cost price; $COHR is currently priced around 239 USD, also about 7% lower than Huang's entry price. What does this mean? It means that if you want to invest in these leading companies in optical modules/optical components now, your chips are even cheaper than what Nvidia got back then. The "bottom" that the big boss helped you step on with tens of billions of USD is now available to you at a 10% discount. Of course, the market always carries risks, and Huang's trapped positions don't necessarily represent an absolute safety cushion. But these chips are indeed right here, and the discount is real. How to choose and whether to follow is up to you. Think it over yourself.

After researching the US stock market, I found the seven golden flowers, and 5 of them are already below the 200-day EMA moving average, namely: $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN $META $TSLA Currently, the only two remaining are Apple and Nvidia, still holding their ground. Historical data tells us that investing regularly below the 200-day EMA moving average is the best investment decision, allowing you to outperform 85% of US stock investors. This conclusion was not given by me but is based on backtesting data done by Claude. Additionally, Claude told me that $TSLA is the company most likely to break a $10 trillion market cap globally within the next 10 years. It only needs to deploy 20 million Robotaxi rental cars worldwide and have 5 million Optimus humanoid robots enter thousands of households to achieve a $10 trillion valuation. It can only be said that Tesla is still too cheap now! You can always trust Musk's execution power! 🧐 #财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？

I made 20,000 from IPO subscriptions, while the founder of DeepSeek made 827 million from IPO subscriptions! Using 194 quantitative funds to participate in IPO subscriptions, too bad I don't have 194 relatives! 😂 Having multiple accounts is just awesome! By the way, why doesn't the CSRC ban this kind of behavior?! Shouldn't institutional IPO subscriptions be limited to one entity? This is clearly exploiting a loophole! #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量

Changxin Technology $CXMT's market cap once surpassed 3.5 trillion USD, becoming the new king of A-shares 🫅. The latest evaluation from Nomura Securities values Changxin bullishly at 116 RMB, with a market cap of 7.76 trillion, potentially doubling again? Brothers, are you willing to jump in? I carefully reviewed Nomura's report; they expect DRAM revenue to explode beyond 2 trillion USD by 2030. Yes, that's trillion with a T. Growing from about 80 billion USD in 2022 to over 2.06 trillion USD in 2030. Below is their full supply and demand outlook. Production is expected to grow from 29.3 billion GB in 2022 to 128.4 billion GB in 2030. Shipments rise from 24.7 billion GB to nearly 126 billion GB. Utilization remains extremely high, often exceeding 100% in later years, with inventory even turning negative in absolute terms. This is a clear signal of structural tightness in the market. Price trends are equally dramatic. After prices plunged to 1.9 USD per GB in 2023, Nomura expects a strong rebound. They forecast 13.7 USD per GB in 2026, peaking near 18.6 USD/GB in 2027, then stabilizing around 16 to 17 USD/GB by 2030. Higher shipments combined with these sustained high average prices are the key drivers behind that over 2 trillion USD revenue figure. This is not a normal cyclical recovery. The forecast assumes AI and data center demand will lead supply for years. Wafer capacity is growing but far from enough to keep pace with bit demand. High Bandwidth Memory, or HBM, is the main driver here. It offers higher density, higher prices, and profitability far superior to ordinary commodity DRAM. As context, most mainstream long-term forecasts still expect the entire DRAM market to remain below 300 to 400 billion USD by 2030. Nomura is basically saying that if AI infrastructure spending continues at the current pace, this market could be 5 to 7 times larger than those conservative estimates. This has huge implications for the big four—Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Changxin. If even part of this comes true, memory chips could become one of the largest profit pools in the entire semiconductor industry. Capital expenditure will need to accelerate, but pricing power looks very favorable in this scenario. Of course, these are aggressive assumptions. AI spending could slow, new capacity might come online faster than expected, or Chinese manufacturers might close the gap more quickly. But the overall direction is clear. DRAM is no longer just a pure commodity cycle; AI is rewriting the rules completely. By 2030, a 2 trillion USD DRAM market. This is why Nomura dares to shout out a 7.7 trillion market cap for Changxin! 🧐 #长鑫科技上市，全球存储竞争添变量

There are quite a few positive news this weekend. As expected, TACO succeeded! Originally, Trump had approved an attack plan on Iran, but this weekend was very calm with no offensive launched! Moreover, predictions on Polymarket show that the probability of a ceasefire by August 31 has surged to 73%! Additionally, there is a $950 billion South Korea-US semiconductor deal; South Korean pension funds entered the market with a net purchase of 68.4 billion KRW in July. This series of stimuli strongly suggests a bullish outlook for next week! 🧐 Also, pay attention to the US and Japan interest rate decisions on the 30th and 31st, as well as the earnings reports of the seven tech giants (Meta, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon), as shown in the figure below! #美军暂停对伊空袭，海峡通航谈判获进展

Will the Clarity bill actually pass?! Brothers Currently, Polymarket gives it only a 38% chance of passing, it was 43% just a few days ago! If it fails again this time, then there's no hope for this year; after that, Washington's focus will shift to the midterm elections! Does that mean $BTC is going to crash again?! #多数党领袖称CLARITY休会前难通过

Brothers, this man, is he going to win again this time? 🧐 Big short seller Michael Burry has increased his short positions on Nvidia $NVDA and Micron $MU Michael Burry's latest holdings • Increased Micron $MU shorts at $933.86 • Increased Nvidia $NVDA shorts at $210.28 • Increased Caterpillar $CAT shorts at $893.49 • Increased Semiconductor ETF $SOXX shorts at $535.83 • Increased Flutter $FLUT longs at $100.72 • Increased DraftKings $DKNG longs at $23.07 • Increased Molina $MOH longs at $197.02 Burry has kept his Tesla, Palantir, and QQQ short positions unchanged