Apple's next CEO is hardware engineer John Ternus [Ternus], and I am shorting Apple based on this signal. This leadership change signal indicates that Apple is losing its design advantage and shifting towards pursuing engineering cost-effectiveness. Any AI operating system that emerges could potentially drain Apple's moat. $AAPL was hammered down to $308.91 after the earnings report, dropping about 7.2% in a single day. There might be some emotional bounce on the day of the launch event, but in my view, that is a very good shorting opportunity. Apple is increasingly resembling Xiaomi. If the September 1st event does not mention Apple AI or an AI operating system, I will short at the current price on the same day. The advantage of Ternus is that a product engineer regains control, strengthening hardware execution, cost control, and mass production capabilities. The downsides are also obvious: 1. He is good at stabilizing what is certain but not good at preparing for an uncertain future. 2. Touch Bar, butterfly keyboard, and iPhone Air prove that his product judgment is not exceptional; 3. Vision Pro and MacBook Neo prove that he is still willing to bet on new forms and low-price markets. This announces Apple's shift from a software company in the Steve Jobs era to a hardware company, and that it has lost the big battle in AI. In this AI era, Apple is very likely the biggest giant to fall.

The hot topic headline still says "up 9% against the trend," but $AMZN finally closed up 15.25%. The market didn't suddenly go blind; it first asked: Has the money burned brought growth? Amazon's Q2 revenue was $200.6 billion, and it raised its full-year capital expenditure forecast to $195 billion–$205 billion. That's an expensive bill. But if revenue and AI infrastructure demand can hold up, capital is willing to buy growth first. Simply seeing "high capital expenditure" and mechanically shorting would have been taken away last night. $259 is the support zone after the earnings gap up, and $273.2 is the immediate resistance. Holding $259 means the strong logic remains; falling back means the market starts recalculating the money burn. As of the close on August 1, this does not constitute investment advice. #EarningsObserver: Amazon's guidance missed expectations, but the stock still rose 9% #AmazonEarnings #AIcapitalexpenditure #USstocks

The bond market has already raised the hammer, but tech stocks are still pretending not to hear. The 30-year US Treasury yield is around 5.09%. With long-term capital costs pressed to this level, overvalued stocks must be discounted more harshly. $QQQ still closed at 687.99 last night, up 0.59%, but intraday it surged from 680.11 to 695.65. The wide fluctuations have clearly revealed nervousness. Just watch two lines: if 680 holds, it’s a high-level turnover; if 696 can’t be reclaimed at close, don’t hype the rebound as a new trend. Breaking below 680 lets the decline land first; only after reclaiming 696 can we talk about bulls taking over. As of the close on August 1, this does not constitute investment advice. #30YearUSTreasuryYieldHits19YearHigh #USTreasury #TechStocks #MarketWatch

What is most easily overlooked on Friday is not Amazon's big surge, but that $QQQ intraday surged to 695.65, yet finally closed only at 687.99. A single heavyweight dragged the index up, but the long-term yields did not cooperate: the 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.745%, while the price remained below the 20-day moving average of 701.02. This money followed earnings reports, not valuation recovery. Before Monday's market open, first look at Friday's high and low range. Regain the intraday high before discussing testing the moving average; if it falls below Friday's low, any rebound will be exposed. VIX remains in the normal range, not a panic market, but low volatility does not mean interest rate pressure has disappeared. Watch first, don't chase the first move. Data as of US market close on July 31, not investment advice. #USPreMarket #Nasdaq100 #USTreasuryYields #RiskManagement

This hot topic headline is only half correct. Microsoft did indeed rise after hours. OKX's xMSFT was reported at 427.45 USDT at 18:50, up 8.18% in 24 hours. But don't interpret "cutting capital expenditure" as suddenly saving money: management said the actual investment plan hasn't changed; the approximately $175 billion mostly reflects an accounting change in data center leasing. The market is willing to pay a premium based on quarterly revenue of $90 billion, exceeding the expected $87.62 billion. $XMSFT has already touched 428.98. After the open, it held above 420, indicating this revaluation still has momentum; if it falls below 405, it means after-hours enthusiasm is starting to fade. Chasing highs isn't research; wait for volume and price confirmation. #Microsoft cuts capital expenditure against the trend, after-hours up 8.5% #MicrosoftEarnings #USStocks #AIComputingPower #RiskManagement

The most truthful thing before the market opens is the divergence: Amazon rose nearly 4%, Apple fell about 1.3%, yet $QQQ was pushed up to 683.55. Both companies reported earnings that exceeded expectations, but capital only rewarded AWS with a higher premium, not giving the same treatment to Apple's significant revenue growth. Don't rush to see this as a full-strength turnaround. The short-term rebound has already reached around 685.12, and the daily chart structure is not yet repaired. Only if the opening can hold here will I acknowledge that this earnings-driven buying wave has continuation; if it rallies and then falls back, it means pre-market sentiment ran ahead, and spot capital did not follow. Oil prices and geopolitical risks have not disappeared either. Data as of July 31, 07:35 ET, positions are kept low due to wartime conditions, not constituting investment advice. #USPreMarket #Nasdaq100 #TechEarnings #MarketRisk

QQQ rebounded 3.34% today, but don’t be fooled by this big bullish candle: Microsoft surged 15.6% in a single day, while Meta plummeted. The index was dragged up by one super heavyweight stock. With economic slowdown and high interest rates both present, the VIX was pushed back near 17, more like a position replenishment after earnings. This is not the disappearance of risk. $QQQ closed at 683.55, first watch if 685 can hold; if it can’t, it’s still a rebound, the real recovery needs to reclaim the daily 20-day moving average at 702. Position sizing is based on a maximum single loss of 2%, no chasing highs. As of the U.S. stock market close on July 30, for market observation only, not investment advice. #USStocks #Nasdaq100 #TechStocks #EarningsSeason

22:20, $XMSFT is still up 13.04%. After hours, this move is not just about "cutting capital expenditures": Microsoft lowered its 2026 capital expenditure forecast from about $190 billion to about $175 billion. The earnings call clarified that this is mainly because the useful life of data centers and office buildings was extended from 15 years to 25 years, and more leases shifted from finance leases to operating leases. Excluding this impact, investment expectations remain unchanged. Real cash flow is elsewhere: quarterly revenue reached $90 billion, Azure grew 43%, and for the first time, annual Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion. Demand still exceeds supply, and new capacity can be quickly monetized, which is why the market is willing to support a higher valuation. Don't mistake accounting measures for balance sheet reduction. The rise is supported by performance, but the 13% gap also increases the risk of chasing prices. This is not investment advice. #Microsoft cuts capital expenditures against the trend, up 8.5% after hours #MicrosoftEarnings #AIcapitalexpenditure #USStockAfterHours

Microsoft rose 9.6% pre-market, Meta fell 8.6%, yet the Nasdaq ETF actually rose 1.3% to $670.6. The index isn’t celebrating an "AI clean sweep"; it’s just that the weights are offsetting each other. The odd part is here: the VIX remains at 19.35, showing no panic; but the 10-year US Treasury yield is stuck at 4.62%, and $QQQ still hasn’t reclaimed the previous day’s close at 675.5. This rebound has price strength over sentiment, but the structure isn’t fully repaired yet. At the open, watch the 666–675 range. If it can hold above 675, yesterday’s sell-off will be considered invalidated; if it falls back near 661.7, it’s still just a high-volatility rebound after earnings. No chasing the first move today. Data as of 19:36 Beijing time, not investment advice. #USStocks #Nasdaq #EarningsSeason #MarketVolatility

QQQ surged from 661.89 to 683.68 today, rising about 3.1% intraday. It looks like the broader market is catching a breather, but a closer look shows Microsoft pulling the index up: MSFT once rose 15.1% intraday, while META dropped about 9% at the same time. With AI capital expenditure, the market no longer accepts everything indiscriminately, only giving premiums to companies that can turn investments into cloud revenue and profits. This is not a blanket risk-on. The S&P 500 rose about 1.1% in the same period, clearly lagging the Nasdaq; Amazon's earnings report is coming up next tonight. As long as $QQQ can't hold the opening range near 674, today's big bullish candle could easily turn into a short-term rebound after earnings pressure; only if it can hold above 683.7 can the rebound be considered confirmed beyond a single-point surge. I will treat my position as an event trade and will not chase the intraday spike. Data as of around 12:20 PM Eastern Time on July 30, not investment advice. #USStocks #Nasdaq100 #TechEarnings #AICapitalExpenditure