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No rate hike in July, stance neutral leaning hawkish The Federal Reserve is very likely, as the market expects, not to raise rates in July. Except for 3 firmly hawkish officials advocating a rate hike in July, the rest voted to keep rates unchanged. Among them are 2 hawkish-leaning officials: one is Fed Chair Powell, whose recent remarks have been relatively flexible, advocating policy adjustments based on economic conditions. The other is Fed Board member Lisa D. Cook, who was previously dovish but turned hawkish; Trump had previously attempted to fire her. Possibly under such pressure, she stated in mid-July that she prefers to observe for a while longer. Overall, the signals from this FOMC meeting are neither dovish nor very hawkish. The details will be clearer after next month's July meeting minutes. Among the 12 Fed officials voting, 8 hold permanent seats and all supported keeping rates unchanged in July. Their statements were relatively cautious. The 3 firmly hawkish officials hold 2026 voting seats and will lose voting rights next year. Starting next month, I will also summarize officials with voting rights in 2027. Expectations for a rate hike in September are very high. Although August is a monetary policy gap period, in the latter part or second half of the month, the market may start to price in the negative impact of a September rate hike early. In early August, focus will be on the Senate's full vote on the crypto clarity bill.