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tvbee
tvbee
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今晚美股反弹的原因找到了!反弹还是反转? #美联储三票主张加息,今晚PCE成新看点 ┈➤数据 ◆核心PCE数据 年率符合预期(3.3%),月率(0.1%)低于预期(0.2%)、低于前值(0.3%)。 Q2年化季率(3.4%)低于预期(3.5%、低于前值(4.4%)。 ◆GDP数据 Q2的GDP年化季率(1.5%)明显低于预期(2.1%)和前值(2.1%)。 ◆个人支出数据 月率符合预期(0.3%),低于前值(0.9%)。 Q2实季率(3.2%)超过预期(2.3%)和前值(0.5%)。 ┈➤解读 第一,PCE数据比CPI数据更宏观,是美联储更加关注的数据。PCE数据总体略弱于预期、且比上月有下降趋势,这有利于削弱美联储加息的动机。 第二,GDP数据低于预期和Q1,提示经济增长放缓,同样降低了美联储加息的充分性。 第三,Q2实际个人支出季度,是剔除了通胀因素的数据,数据显示Q2的个人消费支出仍然比较强劲。但是,个人支出月率虽然有比较显的下降趋势。 所以总体上,今晚的数据是有利于削弱美联储加息预期的。CME上9月加息的预期降到了61.4%,昨夜是68%。 当然,这不足改变9月加息的预期,美联储要关注持续几个月的数据而不是某一个月。 何况季率数据是初值,后续还会调整,而美伊关系在7月再度紧张,油价再度上涨,7-8月的CPI数据未必乐观。 所以蜂兄还是倾向于反弹而非反转。
tvbee
tvbee
If there is a past life, Trump must have been the Black Swan reincarnated from that life! Originally, I was optimistic about the US stock market and crypto during the August monetary policy window. But Trump also took notice of this window, and the US-Iran conflict started again. Militarily, on July 28, Iran launched a missile test attack on US troops stationed in the Middle East. Non-militarily, in July, the US reimposed sanctions on Iran's oil sales, including economic sanctions and sanctions on Iranian shipping. Iran launched the attack the day before the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, raising expectations of US-Iran conflict, rising oil prices, and increasing CPI. It is speculated that Iran deliberately timed this to give the Fed a reason to hawkishly tighten or even raise interest rates—in simple terms, to put eye drops on Trump. Of course, this is just personal speculation. Fortunately, the market has become somewhat desensitized to the US-Iran conflict. Around July 24, OPEC crude oil peaked near 100, and WTI crude oil peaked near 73. Today, OPEC crude oil peaked near 90, and WTI crude oil peaked near 85. Storage is rebounding, Merck $SKHY back to $132. Micron $MU back to $778, $SNDK back to $1095.

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