$GIGGLE After Yue Buqun tweeted yesterday, the on-chain market maker bought 1% of the chips, probably planning something

#美联储三票主张加息，今晚PCE成新看点 In the short term, PCE data doesn't need to be overemphasized. The biggest feature of the market right now is expectation trading. If everyone knows about a rate cut in September and everyone is getting in early, then the market won't be that simple. The real big moves often don't happen when everyone reaches a consensus, but after the market keeps doubting and washing out impatient chips. The expectation of a Fed rate cut is never formed in one day, and funds won't all enter the market immediately because of one piece of data. So, in the short term, whether PCE is good or bad, it is just a point that affects sentiment. What really matters is whether the direction of liquidity changes in the coming months. If the rate cut cycle is confirmed to start, funds will eventually seek high-elasticity assets. The hardest money to make in the market is when no one dares to buy

#交易之声：你的经验值得被听到 Seeing many people stumble in the US stock market, opening such large positions this month without knowing how to avoid risks, those without a sense of reverence—even if they gain wealth—may lose it again because their desires and understanding do not match it. No one has told you that usually, opening positions faces two extremes: either huge profits or huge losses. Like last October opening the Dragon position, April this year opening the Dog position, and now in July opening two positions, the Ox and the Dog. The timing of opening positions is often when energy is most intense, and among all positions, the Dragon position is the hardest to open. Once opened, extremely drastic events usually occur, like the October 11 incident last year. True wealth transfer always happens when most people think it won’t. The real big opportunities and risks in the market often appear during cycle transitions. Next year, the Dingwei year, will see another major opening. The last time a position was opened in a year was 2024, and before that 2021. Everyone knows what happened in 2021 and 2024—both extremes. The so-called opening year is essentially a process of wealth transfer, letting wealth that was stuck in some people’s hands circulate again. Some get rich overnight, others lose everything overnight. The so-called Dao follows nature, not to make you worship deities, nor to make you superstitious about some external force. Understanding reverence as fear of divine punishment means you have not yet awakened. The "nature" in Dao follows nature does not truly mean the natural world, but refers to the order of heaven and earth, the timing of all things. No one pushes the sun to rise, commands the seasons to change, or deliberately directs water to flow downhill, yet all these run according to their own laws, unaffected by anyone’s will. Humans are only part of heaven and earth; wealth and life have their own cycles. Often, what you think you can control is just a phase result of going with the flow when cycles change. Therefore, reverence for Dao following nature means reverence for the underlying laws of the world, reverence for the cycles of development. Wealth has its rules; before these rules, people can only go with the flow. You cannot go against it. Do not go against the trend or act recklessly; do the right thing at the right time.

#美联储即将公布利率决议 Before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, the market's biggest discussion was whether there would be a rate cut. But for the crypto market, what truly determines the trend might not be this meeting itself. Because the market has already priced in some of the rate cut expectations in advance, what really matters is whether the future liquidity environment will change and whether funds will be willing to re-enter crypto risk assets. In the past few years, the crypto market has undergone a huge transformation, from a liquidity frenzy in a low-interest-rate era to a capital selection process in a high-interest-rate environment. During the low-interest-rate period, market funds were abundant, and risk appetite was extremely high. At that time, a narrative, a concept, or an ecosystem could attract massive capital to drive valuations. So we saw explosive growth in DeFi, NFT, GameFi, and various public chain ecosystems. But after entering the high-interest-rate cycle, market logic began to change. The money hasn't disappeared; it has just become more cautious. Many people still hold onto the mindset of the past bull market, thinking that as soon as rate cuts start, all coins will rise. The future market will no longer be like 2021, where a whitepaper, a story, or a grand vision could secure valuations of tens of billions of dollars. Loose liquidity is just a condition, but not the reason for price increases.

Perfectionists are inherently unsuited for trading because the market is not a mathematical formula; there is no absolutely precise top or bottom. The true tops and bottoms are essentially price ranges, not some magical single point. As long as your buying logic, position management, and risk control are within reasonable limits, transactions within this range are valid trades. Many traders obsess over "buying at the lowest point and selling at the highest point." They know the market might start moving but always feel they are a few points short, hoping to buy at that exact number. When the price rises, they hesitate to buy, ultimately missing large market moves. Selling is the same—they hope to sell at that exact highest price point. Waiting for that precise number causes profits to be completely retraced.

$BTC The big whale wants to drag the price as far as October/November, making more people firmly believe that 60,000 is the major bottom. He wants the market to slowly doubt the 30,000/40,000 level, so that by October/November everyone gets on board, burying everyone inside. That will be the real start of the second deep bear market. Next year, the Dingwei year is a year of opening the treasury, a year of wealth transfer. Two extremes will happen: some people will get rich overnight, while others will go bankrupt. Those who go bankrupt won’t even have a chance to sit at the table in the next bull market. Wealth will flow from those with bad luck to those who open the treasury next year. In the Dingwei year, the Ding fire generates the Wei earth in the earthly branches. Overall, the power of Wei earth is very strong, but $BTC has the problem of Zi Wei penetration. Zi water will be seriously hurt. In summer, the one getting damaged is Zi water; in winter, it will damage the Ding fire inside Wei earth. $BTC’s Zi water cannot be damaged. Once damaged, extreme events will occur. I even believe the bottom will be seen next summer. If the bottom is seen this year, then next summer there will be a major black swan event that drags the price down again. There won’t be a bull market so soon next year. The whole next year is extremely unfavorable for $BTC. To see a bull market, at least wait until 2028, when the metal-earth luck cycle begins. Combined with the black swan event in summer, next year might be a long-term bottom consolidation phase.

Many altcoin projects can no longer survive, and on-chain protocol revenues are dismal. Many recent altcoin rebounds are just narratives of teams unable to continue, unlocking and selling coins to cash out 😄 So don’t assume the altcoin season has arrived just because you see a few big green candles. In the 2021 bull market, you could count on your fingers the altcoins that truly entered mainstream view, but in this 2024 cycle, there are more coins issued than users playing in the market. Don’t pity those altcoins; they are the real cancer of this market. The bear market isn’t destroying the crypto market; it’s helping to clean out the trash.

Another exchange has fallen. Yesterday BitMart announced its closure. In the past 24 hours, only 58 wallets were able to withdraw, with a total withdrawal amount of about $805,000, and no withdrawals were processed in the past 8 hours. In recent years, the market has seen too many contract gurus who consistently profit and multiply their earnings dozens of times in a year. They package their trading curves, show screenshots of sudden wealth, and then guide users to small platforms that lack liquidity and risk control capabilities. During a bull market, all problems are masked by rising prices, but in a bear market, after liquidity recedes, true strength is tested. The problems of small exchanges don't explode overnight; they accumulate slowly during bear markets as trading volume drops, income decreases, and financial pressure mounts. So many times, don't be attracted by stories of guaranteed profits that double your money. Those people usually lead you to a shady small exchange, and when the time comes, you won't even have time to cry when you can't withdraw your funds.