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"Computer Repaired in Sapporo, BTC's August First Secures Insurance" Saturday, August 1, 2026 Q3 · Issue 91 Aspirin · Cyclical Analysis from a Data Scientist's Perspective No updates these days. Currently residing in Japan, my computer coincidentally got 100ml of tea spilled on it causing a black screen. After struggling, I took it to the official Apple store in Sapporo. Fortunately, it was repaired and all data remained intact. After rebooting, BTC had already slid back from above 64K to around 63K. The machine is restored, but this July rebound is the time to check the components. In July, BTC opened at $58,628, reached a monthly high of $66,955, and closed at $62,891, an increase of about 7.3%. The pullback at the end of the month cut much of the intraday gains that once exceeded 10%. The candlestick is still bullish, but the closing quality is not impressive. Reviewing the mid-cycle years of 2014, 2018, and 2022 again: they did not replicate the same candlestick pattern. Their commonality is deleveraging in the first half of the year, followed by a decent summer recovery; if the rebound fails to reclaim the long-term trend, a re-pricing occurs in the second half. History does not place bets for today but changes the odds. Chasing shorts in July was painful; entering August and mistaking the rebound for a one-sided bull market is equally risky. Chart: BTC Trading Map for August (as of August 1, 2026) 1. In the three mid-cycle years, summer looks like "improvement" The "mid-cycle years" I refer to are the adjustment years after the previous bull market peak in the four-year cycle, coinciding with the US midterm election years 2014, 2018, and 2022. Their declines, news, and bottoming months differ, but the market sequence is very similar. 2014 was an early-maturing cycle. BTC was around $800 in January, dropped to about $351 in April; from May to June, the price rose from around $423 to $674, closing June at about $640. It was easy to think the big drop was over, but July closed at $586, August bottomed at $444, and the fourth quarter touched $289. The capitulation did not happen within the year but dragged into January 2015, closing at about $178 on January 14. 2018’s path was the neatest. The June low was $5,826, July’s high rebounded to $8,424, nearly a 45% increase from the low; August returned to $5,971. September to October ranged between $6,200 and $7,000 with decreasing volatility until November’s support broke, bottoming at $3,585, and December saw $3,191 again. The summer rebound was significant but did not change the bear market structure. 2022 resembled a fast-forward triggered by events. June bottomed at $17,709 under the shocks of Terra, Celsius, and Three Arrows Capital; July rebounded to $24,573, August briefly touched $25,135, about 42% above June’s low. Then prices fell back near $20,000, and November’s FTX collapse pushed the low to $15,599. Looking at the three cycles together, summer rebounds repair oversold conditions and sentiment but do not necessarily restore the long-term trend. Bottoming times are not uniform: December 2018, November 2022, and January next year for 2014. Therefore, I do not infer a guaranteed drop on any day from the "mid-cycle year" but treat Q4 to January as a window to hold cash and hedge. If 2026 can reclaim 64.8K, hold above 69.5K, and long-term yields fall, it will have left this old path. 2. Two yields are more useful than a whole page of statements The Fed maintained the 3.50% to 3.75% rate range with a 9-3 vote, three members requested a 25 basis point hike. No need to repeat the press conference; I focus on two numbers: on July 31, the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.75%, the 30-year to 5.27%, and TLT fell to $82.25 the same day. The central bank did not move, but the bond market has already raised the cost of long-term capital. Continued rise in long-term yields will compress tech stock valuations and BTC risk appetite simultaneously. My observation switch is: if the 10-year stays above 4.75%, the 30-year above 5.25%, and BTC fails to reclaim the 200-week moving average, the rebound is treated as counter-trend. If yields fall below 4.60% and 5.15%, and BTC recovers 64.8K, the summer rebound can continue to expand. 3. 63.6K is the first gate in August BTC is currently about 63.1K, the 50-day moving average is at 63.4K, and the 200-week moving average is around 63.6K. These three prices cluster together, making 63.4K to 63.8K a short-term watershed. Weekend liquidity is thin; a sudden break below might be a fake move; if a four-hour rebound is still suppressed, it means something entirely different. Looking up, 64.8K is near the 50-day exponential moving average recovery line, 67.2K is the first realization zone before July’s high, and 69.1K to 69.5K is the 20/21-week resistance band. Looking down, 62.2K is the structural confirmation level; if lost, then 60.5K and 58.2K follow; deeper support remains at 54K to 55K. Computers can be sent to official stores, but positions have no repair counters. Stop-loss, hedging, and replenishment prices are best written before the "water spill". Data notes: BTC prices and moving averages are from OKX as of noon August 1, 2026; historical cycle monthly highs and lows reference CoinMarketCap and StatMuse; US Treasury yields are from the US Treasury’s July 31 closing data; Fed rate decision is from the July 29 meeting results. The above is personal research and trading plans only and does not constitute investment advice.