If Bitcoin has cycles, then October 5th marks the start of the bear-to-bull transition! Studying the Bitcoin BTC cycle, you will find a pattern: Uptrend period 1064 days, downtrend period 364 days End of 2015 → End of 2017: 1064 days End of 2017 → End of 2018: 364 days End of 2018 → End of 2021: 1064 days End of 2021 → End of 2022: 364 days End of 2022 → End of 2025: 1064 days End of 2025 → End of 2026: 364 days If this script continues, then October 5, 2026, will be the start of the bear-to-bull transition!

Bitcoin $BTC miner winter is spreading!!! The total network hashrate has dropped to 908 EH/s, hitting a new low for 2026. The current cost to mine one $BTC through hashrate is $78,000 > the spot price of $BTC around $65,000, meaning miners lose over $10,000 for each Bitcoin mined!!! Outcome: Forced shutdown and marginal clearance: High electricity prices and inefficient old models (such as some S19 series) have completely penetrated the shutdown price. Miners "queue to shut down" is a rational choice to preserve capital. The hashrate reduction is the market clearing high-cost marginal capacity to rebalance supply and demand; Lagged selling pressure release: To maintain fiat operating expenses and repay equipment debts, unhedged miners have to accelerate selling inventory reserves, which in the short term puts selling pressure on the spot price.

#海力士业绩创纪录但不及预期，存储股剧烈波动 SK Hynix stock price fluctuates, South Korean investors can't hold on!!! More than 20 comments per minute on average, all friendly and warm greetings...

A loyal advice for those playing with meme coins! Never go all-in when liquidity is insufficient! The real bottom buys in the crypto world are: 3w8 $BTC 1200 $ETH 40 $SOL Patience is the greatest test!

People in the crypto circle should never recklessly get involved in US stocks! There is an unwritten rule in the crypto world: when even the off-market retail investors start FOMOing in, the bull run is over! Why do crypto people swarm into US stocks then? Have they forgotten they are outsiders in the US stock market? My understanding is: they’ve never been retail investors in US stocks before and want to give it a try!

I'm "more successful" than Musk! Brothers, the US stock market crashed, I lost 3000, Musk lost 880 billion. See, I lost so much less than Musk, I'm way more successful than Musk.

There is Black Friday in a week, and a "Red July" in a month! A bloody July, where heroes from all sides suffered crushing defeats!

#韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股 Capital markets are shifting! Korean stocks plunged 8% in a flash crash, triggering a circuit breaker, with foreign capital stampeding to exit; Meanwhile, on the other side, A-shares saw Changxin Storage debut like a raging beast, opening by smashing expectations and soaring to the peak, instantly topping the market's highest valuation! One day frozen, one day blazing hot. Highly leveraged hot money flees westward in panic under the cover of night, while the giant wheel of semiconductor localization crashes through the ceiling amid the storm. Is this storm over Asia's capital landscape a shocking misallocation, or the final alarm of an era reshuffle?

#美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议 The key focus of this FOMC Federal Reserve decision is not only whether to hold rates steady this time; but more importantly, the Fed Chair's policy stance on whether to "maintain high rates for the long term" or "possibly resume rate hikes" going forward! The core of Thursday's decision is not about "whether to raise rates," but about "how to assess the inflationary impact brought by oil prices." In a macro environment of extreme uncertainty, avoid blindly betting on a single direction before the decision is announced, and be cautious of the "two-way sweep" volatility in the market during the statement release and press conference. So, what will be the trends for the four major assets: cryptocurrency, US stocks, gold, and oil?

#财报观察员：微软Meta亚马逊能稳住AI叙事吗？ I believe Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon have the capability to "support" the AI narrative without it collapsing, but they cannot prevent the "AI premium" from being squeezed out. This week's earnings reports are not the final act of this great AI game, but rather the starting point for the market to redefine the "AI valuation model"—only those that can generate cash flow are assets; those that cannot are merely CapEx sunk costs. If we take the late 1990s internet bubble in the US stock market and the well-known "narrative rotation and deleveraging cycles" in the crypto space as reference points, when the market shifts from "valuation out of thin air" to "looking at cash flow and capital expenditure sunk costs," the subsequent development is usually not an instantaneous cliff-like crash, but a long-term structural clearing and asset differentiation: Historical projection: The giants (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta), to avoid falling behind in the future, even knowing that returns are declining, are still forced to continue increasing or maintaining massive capital expenditures. (Similar to how telecom giants once overlaid fiber optic cables) The result is severe infrastructure overcapacity. Just as fiber optic overcapacity once caused bandwidth prices to plummet, the prices of computing power and model tokens will be squeezed to extremely low levels in the future. Mid-tier algorithm companies and pure API resellers will be the first to face a wave of bankruptcies, becoming the first victims of "sunk costs."