While everyone is focused on the collapse of the Leopold Fund, the real danger lies with Japan. This week, the Bank of Japan did not raise interest rates but directly bought yen. The U.S. Treasury also stepped in to buy yen, marking the first time in decades. The U.S. is helping Japan defend its exchange rate. The reason is straightforward: the yen has been supplying blood to the U.S. Japan is the largest overseas holder of U.S. Treasury bonds. For decades, investors have borrowed yen at almost zero cost to pour into U.S. stocks, technology, and AI—this is yen carry trade, which has provided cheap capital to the U.S. market for thirty years. This year, Japan spent over $70 billion trying to support the yen but still failed, with the yen falling to its lowest level since 1986. After the U.S. and Japan joined forces this week, the yen rose 4% in two days. Currencies shouldn’t move like this; such moves often force forced liquidations. Money from carry trades is starting to withdraw from AI positions. The collapse of the Leopold Fund is the first exit signal in crowded trades. Wall Street knows very well that carry trade returns are too attractive, and they are playing harder than ever. But once crowded trades exit, small fluctuations can easily turn into a major stampede. In 1987, Germany raised interest rates, and two months later came Black Monday. In 2026, it might be Japan’s turn. However, this time the U.S. has already stepped in, using reserves to buy yen, aiming to control the pace of the exit. Governments don’t do this lightly unless the consequences of inaction are worse. Risk warning: The pace of carry trade exits is hard to predict, and volatility may exceed expectations. This is personal observation only and does not constitute investment advice. #日元干预战升级，美方准备介入

MSTR used to feel like it only bought and never sold. Now it's different: when cash is needed, BTC can also be taken out and used. Replenishing reserves, paying dividends, and buybacks may all be linked to selling coins. It's not about liquidating the position, nor is there an immediate 5 billion sell pressure. But the filter of never selling coins #Strategy终止逢低买币，Q2账面亏82亿 has indeed been somewhat removed. Many people used to buy MSTR as a leveraged way to buy BTC. Now the market thinks one step further: is it a faith-based holding, or a financial machine relying on BTC to maintain its capital structure? If BTC holds steady, it's not a big problem. If BTC falls again, MSTR will face more pressure than spot. Next, watch two points: whether BTC's key support can hold, and whether MSTR's premium will continue to be suppressed. If both weaken together, MSTR will most likely be discounted again.

Apple FY3Q26 revenue exceeded expectations, but guidance is weak The market's first reaction was a drop because next quarter's guidance is 9-11% vs consensus 12% Looking closely, it's not weak demand but insufficient advanced process capacity SoC supply is a bottleneck; iPhone and Mac actually grew +22% and +29% year-over-year The real risk lies in gross margin, with next quarter's midpoint at 46.5% Memory price increases are eating into profits, fortunately the company has price hikes and inventory buffers This round of trading is about whether the supply shock can be quickly resolved If capacity catches up and demand remains, the current dip is an opportunity But if memory prices keep rising and gross margin keeps falling, the logic changes Short term focus on gross margin, mid term on Siri AI implementation and advanced process capacity expansion Before clear capacity signals, don't set expectations too high #苹果第三财季业绩超预期，盘后股价大幅下跌

The rebound of SK Hynix and Samsung is not about the earnings reports themselves It's about the US tech stocks in Q2 giving new life to the AI narrative The Nasdaq jumps, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index jumps, SK Hynix ADR surges 17% directly Money is clearly heavily betting on the storage + computing power line The logic here is straightforward—— As long as big companies keep pouring capital expenditure, The demand gap for HBM and DDR5 remains unrefuted Amazon's AI high-speed channel revenue exceeded expectations, Which is equivalent to sending a confirmation letter to the hardware chain So the funds in South Korea are very decisive, first replenishing the previously oversold storage positions But a word of caution: Tech sentiment spilling over to crypto usually requires continuous volume confirmation Currently, there is no obvious capital inflow effect in the AI sector on-chain Confirmation signal: NVDA and SMCI reports followed by no volume drop, Sentiment can hold for a few more weeks Invalidation signal: SK Hynix high-volume stagnation at highs, Or a sudden tightening in macro liquidity data Risks have always been there; a rise does not mean pricing is reasonable The key is not how much it rises, but whether it can withstand the pullback after the rise #财报观察员：亚马逊指引不及预期，股价却反涨9%

Strategy lost $8.2 billion this round. Simply put, when $BTC drops, MSTR's trump card is revealed again. The market used to be willing to give it a premium because it not only "bought a lot of BTC," but also had financing capabilities, leverage narratives, and the Saylor halo. But now the problem arises: If the stock price trend increasingly resembles an amplified version of BTC, then why should it be priced so much higher than the spot price in the long term? The most glaring part of the Q2 financial report isn't the main business, but the fair value loss of Bitcoin. When BTC falls, the book loss expands. When BTC rises, MSTR catches a breather. The logic is that straightforward. This round isn't because the company's fundamentals suddenly worsened, but because its mirror relationship with BTC is too obvious. Next, focus on one signal: Can BTC's key support hold? If it doesn't hold, MSTR will most likely fall even harder than BTC. If it holds and quickly recovers, short covering could also push it up sharply. This kind of stock isn't a comfortable position. Its essence is a high beta BTC exposure. It amplifies joy when rising and amplifies pain when falling. #交易之声：你的经验值得被听到

The market has priced in a 32% chance of a rate hike in July. It's like flipping a coin. The bulls don't dare to add. The bears don't dare to increase their positions. Goldman Sachs says whether they hike or not, it could be the biggest surprise in decades. Caught between inflation and recession. BTC is holding close to support. The Nasdaq is too. Before the direction emerges, volatility will come first. #美联储即将公布利率决议

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SK Hynix dropped 12% today in South Korea. Don't rush to bottom-fish. Such a crash usually recovers to normal — then continues to fall. The story of AI chip demand is not broken. But the pit dug by short-term sentiment won't be filled in a day. #韩股重挫8%，长鑫首日登顶A股

Federal Reserve July Decision: Don’t Bet on the Outcome, Watch the Wording At 2 AM Thursday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. Will they cut rates? The market has basically priced in: Most likely no change. What really moves the market isn’t the interest rate number. It’s how a few words in the statement are changed. Three key areas: 1. What is said about inflation If it remains: Inflation remains elevated → Market interprets this as hawkish, rate cut expectations remain on hold. If changed to: Inflation is making further progress → Dovish, the market will start pricing in a September rate cut early. 2. What is said about employment If it continues: Labor market remains strong → Neutral. If changed to: Labor market is moving toward balance → Market will see this as the Fed starting to focus on employment risks. 3. Dual mandate risks The most critical question now: What is the Fed more worried about? Inflation? Or employment? If inflation risk is emphasized: → Hawkish. If employment pressure is emphasized: → Dovish. My personal view: The statement may show a slight dovish tilt. But Powell’s speech likely won’t directly confirm a September rate cut. More likely: wording leaves room, verbal tone remains cautious. How about $BTC? If dovish: Dollar and US Treasury yields ease. Risk assets may rebound. BTC focus: 66-67K range. If neutral: Market continues to wait for data. BTC likely: consolidating and digesting. If unexpectedly hawkish: Risk assets will come under pressure first. BTC key support: around 63K. Don’t take sides prematurely. Wait for the 2 AM statement to see the first wave of money voting. Then at 2:30 AM Powell’s speech, see if the market changes direction. The biggest fear of the Fed meeting isn’t the result. It’s: The market betting the wrong way in advance. #美联储周四凌晨公布利率决议